CENTRAL ASIA - CAUCASUS ANALYST

Wednesday/December 13, 2006

CENTRAL ASIA-CAUCASUS INSTITUTE AND SILK ROAD STUDIES PROGRAM The Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program is a Joint Transatlantic Research and Policy Center, affiliated with Johns Hopkins University-SAIS and Uppsala University. Click on the link above to access the website of the Joint Center. This features publications including op-eds, the Silk Road Papers policy paper series, books and journal articles, as well as information on the staff, research and activities of the Center. New releases include the following:

THE POLITICIZATION OF ISLAM IN AZERBAIJAN Silk Road Paper, October 2006, By Svante E. Cornell, 75pp.

THE STATE-CRIME NEXUS IN CENTRAL ASIA: STATE WEAKNESS, ORGANIZED CRIME AND CORRUPTION IN KYRGYZSTAN AND TAJIKISTAN Silk Road Paper, October 2006, By Erica Marat, 140pp.

MINORITIES AND THE STATE IN THE SOUTH CAUCASUS Silk Road Paper, June 2006, By Johanna Popjanevski, 90pp.

THE CHINA AND EURASIA FORUM QUARTERLY A Quarterly journal published by the Joint Center, edited by Niklas Swanstrom. Click link to view the August 2006 issue.

THE CURRENT ISSUE OF THE CENTRAL ASIA-CAUCASUS ANALYST: CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD PDF VERSION

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THE ANTI-REVOLUTIONARY TOOLKIT Regine A. Spector
In early November, as American voters took to the polls, citizens of the small Central Asian republic of Kyrgyzstan took to the streets. By the fifth day of anti-government protests, many wondered if a new “color revolution” might spread from Bishkek, the Kyrgyz capital. Yet only a week after the protests began, both presidential supporters and opposition leaders declared victory over the adoption of a new constitution, applauding the peaceful end to a tense political standoff. How was revolution averted? Ever since the Serbian uprising of 2000, the tools and techniques of color revolutions have received a great deal of media and analytical coverage. At the same time, observers have failed to notice that regional governments have been busy developing and sharing their own anti-revolutionary toolkit.

RUSSIA’S STRONG-ARM POLICIES PROMPT REACTION IN SOUTH CAUCASUS AND SWAY BRUSSELS OPINION Jaba Devdariani and Blanka Hancilova
While Russian legislators moved on December 6 to legalize economic sanctions, South Caucasus countries attempt to decrease reliance on Russian energy and limit the political ties. Azerbaijan announced plans to use more of its own gas reserves and possibly to cut oil deliveries to Russia. Armenia, Moscow’s staunch ally, is seeking ways to improve cooperation with the EU and, increasingly, NATO. Georgia, already under heavy Russian sanctions, tries to find alternative energy sources and markets. Notably, the usually passive EU has upgraded its Neighborhood Policy to include peacekeeping.

NEEDED: A U.S. BLACK SEA STRATEGY Ariel Cohen and Conway Irwin
U.S. interests in the Black Sea area—energy transit, security, counter-terrorism, proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, and the trafficking of drugs, weapons, and people—have taken on particular significance since 9/11. The Black Sea basin is a strategic region bordering the Greater Middle East and a key transit route for Caspian oil. Confronted with developments in the region, the U.S. needs a comprehensive regional policy to protect American interests and security.

RUSSIAN INVESTMENTS IN ARMENIA: THEIR ECONOMIC BACKGROUND AND POSSIBLE POLITICAL IMPACT Haroutiun Khachatrian
The recent takeover of the Armenian telecom operator, ArmenTel, by the Russian company Vympelcom, the possible passage of the Iran-Armenian gas pipeline to a company controlled by Russia, and the possible accession of Armenian railroads by Russian railroads renewed the discussion about the role of Russia in the Armenian economy. Pro-western politicians claim the excessive penetration of Russian capital into Armenian economy will lead to the country’s dependence on Russia, which, in turn, may have political consequences. However, there is no indication that Russian investments in the Armenian economy pursue goals other than making profit.