Wednesday, January 12, 2011

RESEARCH: Azerbaijan, Armenia, and America. By Stephen Blank (

In the absence of a viable negotiation process, the rise in Azeri standing and capability forces us to consider a troubling possibility: Those in Baku who espouse a military solution, and those in Yerevan who fear a dwindling advantage and thus advocate preventive strikes, could gain the upper hand. Renewed military action would be a humanitarian disaster. Despite Azerbaijan’s high military budget, most analysts still maintain that its military capabilities are not a match for Armenia’s, and that unless Azerbaijan launched only a limited war (the limits of which Armenia might not respect), it would probably lose after the initial shock of its offensive. Moreover, it is likely that Moscow would then intervene, as it did in 1992–93, when it shipped $1 billion of weapons to Armenia to prevent an Azeri victory. This would in turn put Turkey in a bind: Russo-Turkish relations today are very good (they were not in 1993), but Turkey is also allied with Azerbaijan. If Turkey failed to intervene on Azerbaijan’s behalf, it would lose whatever claim to respect it has in the Caucasus, something that it is hard to envisage Ankara accepting quietly.

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1 comment:

Edward Demian said...

In the event that Azerbaidjian initiates hostilities, Turkey will try to supply Azerbaidjian with Material help. Perhaps some Advisors, as well. But the minute the Azeris start loosing, the Turks will react the way they always have. They will turn on the defenseless Armenian population in Turkey. They will send mobs, with lists, to break into Armenian apartments and shops in Istambul and kill, rob and rape. Hystory repeats itself.
PS. If the Jewish readers of this comment think that they will somehow be spared because Israel has "good" relations with Turkey (a benefit from colluding with the Genocide perpetrators to cover up the Armenian Genocide); Think again. This time the Jews are on the menue too. Unfortunayely.