REPORT: CEPS European Neighbourhood Watch 37

Sehr geehrte Damen und Herren, liebe Südkaukasus-Interessierte,
da ich leider aus zeitlichen Gründen derzeit keine eigenen Kommentare schreiben kann, sende ich Ihnen einen kurzen Kommentar von Michael Emerson vom CEPS in Brüssel, der die Abchasien-Problematik in einer Weise fasst, die ich inhaltlich voll unterstütze.

Mit besten Grüßen, Walter Kaufmann

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Walter Kaufmann
Director
Heinrich Boell Foundation
Regional Office South Caucasus
5, Radiani str., 0179 Tbilisi, Georgia
T: +995-32-227705
F: +995-32-912897
E: kaufmann@boell.ge
http://www.boell.ge/



Dear Colleague,

Please download the 37th Issue of the
CEPS European Neighbourhood Watch
from: http://www.ceps.eu/files/NW/NWatch37.pdf.

Editorial by Michael Emerson: "After Bucharest"

NATO’s Bucharest Summit on 3 April ended with some crafty drafting in the communiqué about the prospects for Ukraine and Georgia’s membership action plans. The language is crystal clear, up to a point: “ Ukraine and Georgia will become members of NATO…. [Membership Action Plan] MAP is the next step for Ukraine and Georgia on their direct way to membership”. Foreign ministers have the authority to decide on the MAP applications, and will make a first assessment at the next meeting in December. The EU is, by comparison, not willing to say “ Ukraine and Georgia will become members of the EU”, so the NATO statement is far from meaningless.
However the wording is still ambiguous. France and Germany went to Bucharest determined to prevent a positive decision on MAP. Their reasoning included reasonable comments that there is still a divisive cleavage in Ukrainian political positions and public opinion over NATO, while Georgia’s unreso lved conflicts make for dangers of destabilization. But also there was the undercurrent that President Saakashvili decried as appeasement of Russia, which was amply illustrated by French Prime Minister Francois Fillon’s remarks that their membership would disturb the balance of power between Russia and Europe, a remark that would have fitted well into the discourse of the Congress of Vienna in 1815, but seems stupendously incongruous for today. But did French and German positions change there? Or do they simply retain their blocking positions for another day.
Apparently both Ukraine and Georgia went home from Bucharest happy with the outcome, which Putin’s earlier menacing speeches (like Ukraine will be divided and destroyed by pursuing NATO membership) did not prevent. What should these two countries now do?
For Ukraine it is obvious enough. The countries coalition leadership has to get its act together, at a time when President Yushchenko and Prime Minister Timoshenko appear to be in outright opposition on a whole host of issues from the economy to the constitution.
For Georgia it is time for President Saakashvili to take seriously the misgivings of his Western friends and supporters over his Abkhazia policy. The resolution of this separatist conflict can in theory be pursued by two different routes: renewed war, or a peaceful settlement. As for a renewed war, it means Georgia versus Russia - no further comment needed. As for a peaceful resolution the latest Georgia proposal for the highest autonomy for Abkhazia within a federative Georgian constitution is today a non-starter. Saakashvili is bashing his head against a brick wall. A third hybrid method, of proposing a peaceful solution with the vague threat in the background of the use of force, is equally hopeless, since it just pushes Abkhazia into deeper reliance on Russian protection. This third hybrid approach may be what Saakashvili finds the best political stance internally, but that does not increase its chances of success. The West’s recommendation to Saakashvili seems to be that for the time being he should truly open up the borders for road and rail traffic between, and let commerce and the interaction of people develop, and return to the final settlement question after some years of improving confidence and renewed mutual interests. This may be a difficult message for Saakashvili to digest, but it seems that his aspirations to join NATO have no chance of success unless he does so.

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Sincerely,
Michael Emerson and George Dura
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
CEPS – Thinking Ahead for Europe
Place du Congrès 1
B-1000 Brussels
Tel.: +32 2 229 39 11
Fax: +32 2 219 41 51
E-mail: neighbourhood@ceps.eu