Friday, July 10, 2009

ANALYSIS: The (second) Georgian war will not take place? (

Will there or won't there be another Russian attack on Georgia? Since I raised the issue in my Wall Street Journal op-ed a few days ago, a follow-up.
In a
July 7 article on (Russian-language link), Andrei Piontkovsky, one of the commentators who have warned most strongly about the possibility of a new war this summer, writes that he now believes the risk is considerably reduced.
Why? For one thing, Piontkovsky (not a big Obama fan) thinks "Obama has done what he could," both by bringing up Georgia during his Moscow visit -- apparently in
rather firm tones -- and by sending Vice President Biden to Tbilisi. (There's a new function of the Veep role: a human shield!)
However, he believes the actions of another president -- the president of Armenia,
Serzh Sargsyan -- may have been even more important.

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