ANALYSIS: No. 55: Presidential Elections in Azerbaijan (css.ethz.ch)

Author(s): Rashad Shirinov, Shahin Abbasov, Farid Guliyev
Editor(s): Denis Dafflon, Lili Di Puppo, Iris Kempe, Natia Mestvirishvili, Matthias Neumann, Robert Orttung, Jeronim Perović, Heiko Pleines
Series: Caucasus Analytical Digest (CAD)
Issue: 55
Publisher(s): Center for Security Studies (CSS), ETH Zurich; Research Centre for East European Studies, University of Bremen; Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies, George Washington University
Publication Year: 2013

(css.ethz.ch) This issue examines the presidential elections of October 2013 in Azerbaijan. The first two articles provide an overview of the election strategies of both the ruling party and the opposition. Rashad Shirinov writes about the “stealth strategy” of the ruling party in which the incumbent, President Ilham Aliyev, did not campaign at all and the state-controlled media did not mention the opposition, leaving the public rather uninformed about the upcoming elections. Shahin Abbasov deals with the opposition, which for the first time managed to unite and participate in the elections with a broad coalition and a single candidate. Finally, Farid Guliyev analyses the meaning of these elections for different actor groups in Azerbaijan, concluding that, even though the outcome was predictable, the elections nevertheless fulfilled important functions for President Aliyev, the ruling party, and the opposition.

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NEW PUBLICATION OF NOTE: “The South Caucasus between the EU and the Eurasian Union” (ethz.ch)

NEW PUBLICATION OF NOTE:
Caucasus Analytical Digest (CAD)
Issue No. 51/52
July 2013
 

Authors: Iris Kempe, Temuri Yakobashvili, Fyodor Lukyanov, Richard Giragosian, Vugar Bayramov, Anar Valiyev
Editors: Jeronim Perović, Lili Di Puppo, Iris Kempe, Heiko Pleines, Matthias Neumann, Robert Orttung

This issue of the CAD examines the South Caucasus’ relationship with the European Union and the Russia-led Eurasian Union. 

Contents
The Eurasian Union and the European Union Redefining their Neighborhood: The Case of the South Caucasus, by Iris Kempe, Berlin
Is the South Caucasus a Region?, by Temuri Yakobashvili, Tbilisi
The Eurasian Union: An Experiment in Finding a Place in the New World, by Fyodor Lukyanov, Moscow
The Eurasian Union: A View from Armenia, by Richard Giragosian, Yerevan
Considering Accession to the Eurasian Economic Union: For Azerbaijan, Disadvantages Outweigh Advantages, by Vugar Bayramov, Azerbaijan
Azerbaijan and the Eurasian Union: Costs and Benefits, by Anar Valiyev, Baku

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Iris Kempe's article provides an introduction to the main issues. Temuri Yakobashvili examines whether the South Caucasus is a region and concludes that understanding that the differences outweigh the similarities will help the West formulate policy toward the region. Fyodor Lukyanov argues that the Eurasian Union is not an imperial project, but Moscow's attempt to mimic the European Union. However, he notes that the authoritarian nature of the governments involved will create obstacles for the project. 

Richard Giragosian points out that Armenia has traditionally had close ties to Russia, but has been reluctant to join the Eurasian Union. Vugar Bayramov analyzes the advantages and disadvantages of joining the Eurasian Union for Azerbaijan, concluding that accession is unlikely since it would extract a high political and economic price. Anar Valiyev notes that joining the Eurasian Union would complicate Azerbaijan's sovereignty and ability to conduct an independent energy policy.

Publishers: Center for Security Studies (CSS), ETH Zurich; Research Centre for East European Studies, University of Bremen; Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies, George Washington University

More here: ethz.ch

Think Tank: Nr. 43: Parliamentary Elections in Georgia (css.ethz.ch/publications/CAD)

(css.ethz.ch) This issue examines Georgia's historic October 2012 parliamentary elections in which power passed peacefully to the opposition for the first time in the country's history. Giorgi Kldiashvili examines the course of the campaign, including the impact of the prison scandal. David Sichinava provides an overview of the regional breakdown of the results, stressing the rural urban divide between the two parties that won parliamentary representation. Cory Welt examines the prospects for democratic development in the aftermath of the election. Finally, Niklas Nilsson considers the international implications. The relatively free and fair elections likely improve Georgia's relations with the West and potentially open the door to better relations with Russia as well.

The President in Opposition: Georgia’s 2012 Parliamentary Elections 2
By Giorgi Kldiashvili, Tbilisi

DOCUMENTATION
The Results of the Georgian Parliamentary Elections 5

Shades of Red and Blue—Regional Characteristics of Georgia’s 2012 Parliamentary Elections 7
By David Sichinava, Tbilisi

MAP
Results of Geo-Statistical Analysis of Voting Behavior 10

Can Georgia Become A Multiparty Democracy? 13
By Cory Welt, Washington

OPINION POLL
Georgian Public Opinion on the Quality of the Parliamentary Elections (August 2012) 15

International Implications of Georgia’s Parliamentary Elections 17
By Niklas Nilsson, Washington

CHRONICLE
From 24 September to 22 October 2012 20

Autor(en): Giorgi Kldiashvili, David Sichinava, Cory Welt, Niklas Nilsson

Herausgeber: Robert Orttung

Serie: Caucasus Analytical Digest (CAD)

Ausgabe: 43

Verlag(e): Center for Security Studies (CSS), ETH Zurich; Research Centre for East European Studies, University of Bremen; Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies, George Washington University

Publikationsjahr: 2012 

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PUBLICATION: No. 42: Traditional Law in Georgia (css.ethz.ch)

Author(s): Stéphane Voell, Lavrenti Janiashvili, Natia Jalabadze, Elke Kamm
Editor(s): Stéphane Voell
Series: Caucasus Analytical Digest (CAD)
Issue: 42
Publisher(s): Center for Security Studies (CSS), ETH Zurich; Research Centre for East European Studies, University of Bremen; Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies, George Washington University
Publication Year: 2012

(css.ethz.ch) This issue of the CAD examines the role of traditional law in Georgia. Stéphane Voell argues that despite a new political environment created by the strengthening of the state administration and the work of law-enforcement agencies after the Rose Revolution, traditional law remains an important frame of reference for the Svan population. Lavrenti Janiashvili studies the practice of traditional law in Svaneti in Soviet times as an important part of Georgia's legal history that sheds light on contemporary practices. Elke Kamm examines the practice of bride kidnapping in Tetritskaro, Georgia and explains that it was considered by Georgian ethnographers as an alternative form of marriage that allowed men to marry without going into debt and still occurs nowadays, though rarely. Natia Jabaladze studies the custom of blood feud among Svan migrants in the region of Kvemo-Kartli in Georgia and observes that this tradition remains more alive in self-representation among Svans than in practice.

TRADITIONAL LAW IN GEORGIA
Nagorno-Karabakh, Adjara, South Ossetia, Abkhazia

Local Legal Conceptions in Svan Villages in the Lowlands 2
By Stéphane Voell, Marburg
Traditional Law in Soviet Times 5
By Lavrenti Janiashvili, Tbilisi
The Resurgence of Blood Feud in the Georgian Lowlands 7
By Natia Jalabadze, Tbilisi
The Pride of Being Kidnapped: Women’s Views on Bride Kidnapping in Tetritskaro, Georgia 10
By Elke Kamm, Marburg
 
CHRONICLE
From 10 to 21 September 2012 12

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ANALYTICS: No 37: The Foreign Policy of Azerbaijan and Georgia. By Rashad Shirinov, Kornely Kakachia, George Khelashvili (isn.ethz.ch)

This issue of the Caucasus Analytical Digest examines the foreign policies of Azerbaijan and Georgia. Rashad Shirinov analyzes the evolution of Azerbaijan’s foreign policy from an initial preference for a Western orientation towards a more balanced and independent foreign policy course resulting from the country’s energy wealth and increased confidence. Kornely Kakachia analyzes the role of identity in Georgia’s foreign policy as a determinant of its strong pro-Western orientation. George Khelashvili examines how Georgia’s ambition to defy Russian influence through integration into Euro-Atlantic structures constitutes an uncertain gamble that makes the country heavily reliant on Western assistance. 

2012 © Center for Security Studies (CSS), Heinrich Böll Foundation, Resource Security Institute (RSI), Research Centre for East European Studies (FSOE)

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Author: Rashad Shirinov, Kornely Kakachia, George Khelashvili

Editor: Lili Di Puppo, Hans Gutbrod, Iris Kempe, Matthias Neumann, Robert Orttung, Jeronim Perović, Heiko Pleines

Series: Caucasus Analytical Digest

Issue: 37

Publisher: Resource Security Institute (RSI), Arlington, United States

ANALYSIS: The Role of the EU in the South Caucasus

Author(s): Franziska Smolnik, Sebastian Mayer, Gevorg Ter-Gabrielyan, Badri Kochoradzem, Anar Mammadli 
Editor(s): Lili Di Puppo, Hans Gutbrod, Iris Kempe, Matthias Neumann, Robert Orttung, Jeronim Perović, Heiko Pleines
Publisher(s): Center for Security Studies (CSS), Zurich, Switzerland, Jefferson Institute, Washington, DC, USA, Heinrich Böll Foundation, Tbilisi, Georgia, Research Centre for East European Studi, Bremen, Germany 
Date of publication: 15 Feb 2012 
Issue number: 35
Pages: 22 
Series: Caucasus Analytical Digest 

Description: This issue examines the role of the EU in the South Caucasus by analyzing recent developments in its policies and their impact in the three South Caucasus countries. Smolnik examines the EU’s conflict resolution policies in the region, in particular the “non-recognition and engagement” strategy towards Abkhazia and South Ossetia and the possibilities of its extension to Nagorno Karabakh, and argues that the EU has not capitalized enough on its standing as a neutral mediator so far. Mayer studies variations in the alignment of the South Caucasus countries with the EU’s Common and Foreign Security Policy (CFSP) and observes that alignment is high where material benefits exist. Ter-Gabrielyan analyzes the EU’s support to civil society in the South Caucasus by reflecting on the lessons learned in the participation of a group of Armenian NGOs in the Eastern Partnership Civil Society Forum and concludes that in order for the Civil Society Forum to have an impact, the NGOs must themselves have a strong commitment to high ethical and professional standards. Kochoradze examines the potential of the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (DCFTA) between the EU and Georgia to foster Europeanization and observes that Georgia’s commitment to a European path needs to go beyond security considerations and fully embrace the European model if the country wants to reap the benefits of the DFCTA. Mammadli analyzes the potential of the Eastern Partnership policies to foster human rights and democracy in Azerbaijan and concludes that the EU’s political support is needed to ensure the genuine participation of civil society and political parties in the Eastern Partnership that goes beyond technical assistance programs.

General note: © 2012 Center for Security Studies (CSS), Heinrich Böll Foundation, Resource Security Institute (RSI), Research Centre for East European Studies (FSOE) 

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Source: res.ethz.ch

SCIENCE: Caucasus Analytical Digest - No.24: The Political System in Azerbaijan (res.ethz.ch)

Author(s): Andreas Heinrich, Hannes Meissner Editor(s): Iris Kempe, Matthias Neumann, Robert Orttung, Jeronim Perović, Lili Di Puppo Publisher(s): Center for Security Studies (CSS), Zurich, Switzerland, Jefferson Institute, Washington, DC, USA, Heinrich Böll Foundation, Tbilisi, Georgia, Forschungsstelle Osteuropa (FSOE), Bremen, Germany Date of publication: 11 Feb 2011 Issue number: 24 Pages: 22 Series: Caucasus Analytical Digest

Description: This issue of the Caucasus Analytical Digest discusses the formal political system and the informal political dynamics in Azerbaijan. The paper is supplemented by a statistical overview of how Azerbaijan’s political system compares in country rankings and public opinion polls in Azerbaijan on the political system in this country. General note: © 2011 Center for Security Studies (CSS), Heinrich Böll Foundation, Resource Security Institute (RSI), Forschungsstelle Osteuropa (FSOE)

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Reports in Chronological Order
No.24: The Political System in Azerbaijan
No 23: Urban Spaces – Public and Private
No. 22: Stalinist Terror in the South Caucasus
No. 21: Gender Politics in the South Caucasus
No. 20: Religion in the South Caucasus
No. 19: Future Scenarios for the South Caucasus
No. 18: The South Caucasus After the Global Economic Crisis
No. 17: The Political Systems of the South Caucasus Countries
No. 16: The Political Economy of Oil in Azerbaijan
No. 15: The Internet in the South Caucasus
No. 14: Literature in the Caucasus
No. 13: US-Caucasus Relations - Attitudes towards the West
No. 12: Civil Society
No. 11: Armenian-Turkish Relations
No. 10: The EU Investigation Report on the August 2008 War and the Reactions From Georgia and Russia
No. 9: Organized Crime and Illegal Trafficking in the Caucasus
No. 8: Writing National Histories: Coming to Terms with the Past
No. 7: Abkhazia
No. 6: The Caucasus in the Global Financial Crisis
No. 5: NATO and the South Caucasus
No. 4: Migration, Refugees and IDPs
No. 3: Energy
No. 2: Democracy in the South Caucasus
No. 1: Perspectives on the Georgian-Russian War

ANALYSIS: Gender Politics in the South Caucasus (res.ethz.ch)

Author(s): Ketevan Chkheidze, Yuliya Aliyeva Gureyeva

Editor(s): Iris Kempe, Matthias Neumann, Robert Orttung, Jeronim Perović, Lili Di Puppo

Publisher(s): Center for Security Studies (CSS), Zurich, Switzerland, Jefferson Institute, Washington, DC, USA, Heinrich Böll Foundation, Tbilisi, Georgia, Forschungsstelle Osteuropa (FSOE), Bremen, Germany

Date of publication: 30 Nov 2010

Issue number: 21 Pages: 15 Series: Caucasus Analytical Digest

Description: This issue of the Caucasus Analytical Digest examines gender politics in the South Caucasus. It provides insights into gender politics in Georgia and policy attitudes towards women in Azerbaijan as well as statistical information on gender, gender stereotypes and parenting in the region. General note: © 2010 Center for Security Studies (CSS), Heinrich Böll Foundation, Resource Security Institute (RSI), Forschungsstelle Osteuropa (FSOE)

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STUDY: Stalinist Terror in the South Caucasus (res.ethz.ch)

Author(s): Levan Avalishvili, Eduard Melkonian, Eldar Ismailov, George Anchabadze
Editor(s): Giorgi Kldiashvili, Iris Kempe, Matthias Neumann, Robert Orttung, Jeronim Perović, Lili Di Puppo
Publisher(s): Center for Security Studies (CSS), Zurich, Switzerland, Jefferson Institute, Washington, DC, USA, Heinrich Böll Foundation, Tbilisi, Georgia, Forschungsstelle Osteuropa (FSOE), Bremen, Germany
Date of publication: 1 Dec 2010
Issue number: 22
Pages: 17
Series: Caucasus Analytical Digest

Description: This issue of the Caucasus Analytical Digest examines the history of Stalinist terror in the South Caucasus during the 1930s. It looks at the "Great Terror" in Georgia and Azerbaijan, comments on the repressions in Soviet Armenia and tells the story of a family affected by the Soviet mass terror.

General note: © 2010 Center for Security Studies (CSS), Heinrich Böll Foundation, Resource Security Institute (RSI), Forschungsstelle Osteuropa (FSOE)

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The “Great Terror” of 1937–1938 in Georgia: Between the Two Reports of Lavrentiy Beria
By Levan Avalishvili, Tbilisi

Repressions in 1930s Soviet Armenia
By Eduard Melkonian, Yerevan

1937: “Great Terror” in Azerbaijan
By Eldar Ismailov, Baku

Mass Terror in the USSR: The Story of One Family
By George Anchabadze, Tbilisi

Guest Editor: Giorgi Kldiashvili

SCIENCE: Caucasus Analytical Digest - No. 20: Religion in the South Caucasus (res.ethz.ch)

Author(s): Robia Charles, Harutyun Harutyunyan, Kimitaka Matsuzato, Ruslan Baramidze
Editor(s): Iris Kempe, Matthias Neumann, Robert Orttung, Jeronim Perović, Lili Di Puppo
Publisher(s): Center for Security Studies (CSS), Zurich, Switzerland, Jefferson Institute, Washington, DC, USA, Heinrich Böll Foundation, Tbilisi, Georgia, Forschungsstelle Osteuropa (FSOE), Bremen, Germany

Date of publication: 11 Oct 2010
Issue number: 20
Pages: 18

Series: Caucasus Analytical Digest

Description: This issue of the Caucasus Analytical Digest examines the importance of religion in the South Caucasus. First, Robia Charles examines the nature of religiosity in Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia. Second, Harutyun Harutyunyan analyzes the role of the Armenian church during military conflicts, arguing that the Armenian church legitimized the use of violence, especially during the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict (1988–1994). Third, Kimitaka Matsuzato assesses the strategies for survival of the Orthodox communities in Transnistria, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia. Finally, Ruslan Baramidze examines the differences among Muslim communities in highland and lowland areas of the Autonomous Republic of Adjara.

General note: © 2010 Center for Security Studies (CSS), Heinrich Böll Foundation, Resource Security Institute (RSI), Forschungsstelle Osteuropa (FSOE)
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ANALYSIS: CAUCASUS ANALYTICAL DIGEST No. 10 (res.ethz.ch)

The EU Investigation Report on the August 2008 War and the Reactions From Georgia and Russia

Newsletter, 2 November 2009 / No. 10

CAD is a monthly internet publication jointly produced by the Heinrich Böll Foundation in Tbilisi, the Research Centre for East European Studies at the University of Bremen, the Jefferson Institute in Washington, DC and the Center for Security Studies (CSS) at ETH Zurich with support from the German Association for East European Studies (DGO). The Caucasus Analytical Digest analyzes the political, economic, and social situation in the Southern Caucasus within the context of international and security dimensions.

THE EU INVESTIGATION REPORT ON THE AUGUST 2008 WAR AND THE REACTIONS FROM GEORGIA AND RUSSIA

To download this issue or subscribe to the CAD newsletter please click here: http://www.res.ethz.ch/analysis/cad/index.cfm

From the Editors:
The Report of the International Fact-Finding Mission on the Conflict in Georgia

Analyses:
The Longer "Countdown to War": Growing Confrontation between Georgia and Russia 2004–2008, by Uwe Halbach, Berlin

Initial Military Operations during the War in Georgia in August 2008, by Wolfgang Richter, Berlin

euGeorgia on the EU Mind, by Antonio Missiroli, Brussels

The Aggression by the Russian Federation against Georgia, by Temuri Yakobashvili, Tbilisi

The South Caucasus in the International Spotlight, by Fyodor Lukyanov, Moscow

Opinion Poll:
Cui Bono? Opinions of the Population of the South Caucasus States on the August War

Chronicle:
From 15 September to 27 October 2009

We welcome feedback on CAD topics or any comments you may have on our publication. To send your comments, please visit our website at http://www.res.ethz.ch/analysis/cad/letters.cfm and click on “Submit a Letter”.

STUDIES: No.5 NATO and the South Caucasus (isn.ethz.ch)

By Ahto Lobjakas, Archil Gegeshidze, Alexander Iskandaryan

This issue of the Caucasus Analytical Digest provides analyses of NATO's potential role in the South Caucuses, post-war Georgian Euro-Atlantic aspirations and the relations between NATO and Armenia. Further, it features opinion polls on Georgian popular opinion on NATO membership and policy priorities in the South Caucasus as well as a chronicle of NATO-Georgia relations for the period 1992-2009.

© 2009 Center for Security Studies (CSS), Heinrich Böll Foundation, Jefferson Institute, Forschungsstelle Osteuropa (FSOE)

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Series: Caucasus Analytical Digest

RESEARCH: No.4 Migration, Refugees and IDPs (pdf)

Author: Teona Mataradze, Florian Mühlfried, Milena Baghdasaryan, Sergey Markedonov

This issue of the Caucasus Analytical Digest examines population flows in the region. It looks at labor migration in Georgia and refugee challenges in Armenia. The issue discusses the role and importance of Caucasus societies for Russia. It also provides statistics on migration from and to the countries of the South Caucasus between 1990 and 1998, remittance flows and refugees.

© 2009 Center for Security Studies (CSS), Heinrich Böll Foundation, Jefferson Institute, Forschungsstelle Osteuropa (FSOE)

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Series: Caucasus Analytical Digest

Publisher:

Center for Security Studies (CSS), Zurich, Switzerland

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Jefferson Institute, Washington, DC, United States

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Heinrich Böll Foundation, Berlin, Germany

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Forschungsstelle Osteuropa (FSOE), Bremen, Germany