MAGAZIN: It’s Time to Engage the Caucasus

BY Herschel Smith

We have closely followed the implementation of the Taliban strategy (pointed out here at The Captain’s Journal one year ago and one half year before it began in earnest) to shut down lines of logistics via the Khyber region and through the Torkham Crossing. The closing of the Manas Air Base in Kyrgyzstan has occurred due to entirely different reasons than enemy strategy. Or has it? Russia is asserting itself in what it considers to be its near abroad, and has essentially bribed the officials in Kyrgyzstan to close down the Manas Air Base. This makes the U.S. utterly dependent on logistical lines that run through Russia to Central Asia. Of course, this places the U.S. in a precarious position regarding membership of Georgia and Ukraine in NATO, as well as missile programs in Poland and elsewhere. If the U.S. is dependent on Russia for logistics, then it is much more likely that Russia will be able to assert itself in the region with U.S. weakness because of dependence on Russian cooperation for logistics.
For this reason The Captain’s Journal had recommended approximately two months ago that the U.S. work harder on a potential logistical lines through the Caucasus region, specifically, from the Mediterranean Sea through the Bosporus Strait in Turkey, and from there into the Black Sea. From the Black Sea the supplies would go through Georgia to neighboring Azerbaijan. From here the supplies would transit across the Caspian Sea to Turkmenistan, and from there South to Afghanistan.
If this line of supply came to pass, then this leaves the issue of refueling for air supply and transit through the region unaddressed, since this was the primary mission of the Manas Air Base. Stephen Blank, professor at the US Army War College, has written that of the potential replacements for Manas, none appear to be viable. But unaddressed in Blank’s commentary is the potential to base air support in either Azerbaijan or Turkmenistan.
Returning to lines of logistical supply, as we recently reported, there are ongoing talks concerning the Caucasus region regarding the very routes we have discussed. Furthermore, trial runs of supplies are ongoing to test these routes.

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