BLOG: The Tattered Sweater (robertamsterdam.com)

"What doesn't seem to be much appreciated is that the main problem isn't really Georgia. It's that Georgia is the thread hanging off the tattered sweater; you pull it, and the sweater falls apart."

This quote, from Steve LeVine in BusinessWeek, introduces a new Jamestown Foundation report on the strategic implications of the 2008 war in Georgia on the Black Sea/Caspian region, NATO, and the U.S. and Europe in general. The gist of the report is that "In the long run, Russia may face very serious problems of separatism on its own territory due to Russia's recognition of the breakaway provinces of Georgia. Given these uncertainties, it may be natural to expect that there will be stronger drive to get away from: 1) dependency on Russian energy in Europe; and 2) dependency on Russian transit infrastructure in Caspian /Central Asia region. In the long run, that may be reflected by Russia's weakened strategic position in Europe and Central Asia."

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