War of Revolutions
By Heiko Nowak
(by Perspectives on the Caucasus)
Tbilisi, 27.03.2005

Revolutions are nothing new in the political world. They ever have been out there. But now there exists the following joke among Caucasian Scholars: Question: “Why will there be no revolution in the USA?” – Answer: ”Because they have no US-embassy!” This shows that no one believes that the recent revolutions in Georgia, the Ukraine and in Kyrgyzstan were phenomenons, which came from within the country. Most of the people think that these revolutions serve the interests of the USA. And indeed the series of revolution took place in
regions were increased influence is important for the USA and Europe. And it seems to be directed against the Russian Federation, which declared those countries, where revolutions took place recently, to the “near-abroad”. And the influence of Moscow on the “near-abroad” is indeed of strategic interest for Russia. Loosing influence on the “near-abroad” means to loose security for Moscow. And this loss of influence is probably making some people nervous in the state’s administration. And in my opinion this is a serious thread to Russia.
The influence and therefore security that the “West”, namely the USA and the EU, wins, endangers the Russian Federation. And this is in my opinion the setting for a war. There is a state, which feels itself threatened by another state or group of states (and it is not important, if the thread is really originating from the suspected states). And this threatened state will have to defend its security interests. Therefore it has to counteract the actions of the other states. The result is a war or at least a severe conflict, which will open military, counterrevolutionary or other political fights.
In my opinion, the answers to suspected covered action against the Russian Federation will be answered by the same quality of actions. So if there is or will be a War of Revolutions out there in the world right now, it cannot be observed directly. So observers will have to keep an eye on the quality of cooperation between the Russian Federation and the “West”. And it should be asked, if there is an open visible explanation for a possible decline of cooperation. If there is no open visible explanation, this could serve as an indicator, for a war of covered
actions.
And if there is a war going on, who will win it? – If this conflict was initiated by the USA or other western states, they should have had calculated the consequences of counteraction. And I believe that no state goes to war without thinking, that it will resolve this conflict to its own favour. But one should never underestimate a hurt animal, especially if it is the hurt Russian 2 bear. Russia has still a lot of influence everywhere in the Caucasus, Eastern Europe and Central Asia. And additionally it has got much of expertise of covered war since it was involved in the Cold War. So in my opinion this conflict of interests between Russia and the western states did only begin. But it will last for a longer time. And many civilians will be victims of higher geostrategic politics, which will destabilize states and its civil society.
Because of the instability, there will be less sustainable economic development in the targeted regions. This by itself will reduce stability in those regions and will make the inhabitants vulnerable.

other Reports online:
EU Commission:'European Neighbourhood Policy'Country Report: Georgia {COM(2005) 72 final}