BLOG: Mapping A Russian Invasion Of Georgia (yankeesailor.us)

With recent speculation about a possible invasion of Georgia by Russia, UltimaRatioRegis and I have developed an outline of likely Russia considerations and actions in executing any “intervention”. The pretext will likely be to come to the aid of ethnic Russians and restore stability should protests widen or get violent, or in the event of a coup. The overarching political consideration for Russia is that it knows it will win the footrace handily in its “near abroad”, and NATO won’t present a very united front, much less intervene in any significant way.
The fundamental working assumptions in estimating the Russian plan are >>>