REPORT: The Karabakh Trap: Dangers and Dilemmas of the Nagorny Karabakh Conflict (humansecuritygateway.info)

Source : Conciliation Resources
Date Added: 2-Mar-2009
Publication Date : 1-Jan-2009

Abstract: The conflict between Armenians and Azeris over Nagorny Karabakh (NK) continues to pose serious dangers to the future of the South Caucasus but is still low on the international agenda. There is a misconception that it is ’frozen’, yet the conflict is gradually thawing and there is a danger that fighting could resume. Although a peace agreement is in everyone’s long-term interests, the parties involved are driven by short-term motives and are more comfortable with the status quo. They are caught in a ’Karabakh trap‘, where societies have been encouraged to have unrealistic expectations of what can be achieved and where compromise is fraught with risk. This analytical paper is being published following extensive discussions of a draft version in Baku, Yerevan and Stepanakert with officials, experts and non-governmental activists. (An earlier draft paper was published on two websites without permission). It argues for more strategic and long-term thinking in debates on how to move the peace process forward. It also examines:

* the current state of the negotiation process mediated by the Minsk Group co-chairs; the ‘Madrid document’ under discussion; and the constraints on international actors
* the ceasefire regime along the ‘line of contact’ and its weaknesses
* the evolving situation in the region
* the changing ‘military balance’ and the significance of new military spending
* five ‘bad scenarios’ in which the situation around NK could potentially deteriorate.

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