INTERVIEW: ... with a Russian politolog, invited by the Hudson Institute, professor Andrei Piontkovski.

Ia Merkviladze, New-York, Washington, USA.

Mr Andrei, "sovereign" Kokoiti has strangely disappeared ...
Kokoiti is a famous provoker, he organised the bombing of Georgian villages. Saakashvili was provoked, mislead in the deadfall exactly so, as it was done while the outbreak of the war in Chechnia. Kokoiti has absolutely lost confidence from Ossetians, as he fled from Tskinvali as soon as military activities started, leaving civilian population, women, children. Provoker did his own job and now another person is going to take his place is Tskinvali.

How do you think, will this person have Russian or Ossetian origin?
The matter is, that Kokoiti was the only person, who had Ossetian family name in the whole administration, as the Prime-minister, as well as other officials were Russians.

Finally, everybody saw that there has never been discussion over the independence of the South Ossetia ...
Ossetian formal forces and officials were sent there not only by Russian officials, but by criminal forces from Moscow as well. This was clear and obvious. If we refer Apkhazia, we must realise, that its administration leads a partially independent government there, though it totally depends on Russia. In Kokoiti's case, all of them have always been marionetes and that's why they disappeared so quickly.

Is it possible to get the same scene, as it was in Chechnia?
The outbreak of Georgian-Russian war was the result of the same provokation, as it took place in case of Chechnia. Basaev was intentionally kept in Dagestan, to give Moscow the reason of war.

How do you think, from the economic point, why was it under Russia's interests to commence war exactly now?
Russian economy depends on the oil. The prices are rather high at the moment and accordingly, it's possible to start a war. It was a psycological moment too, as Russia constantly used to declare about its regaining power over the post Soviet states and this is much more significant for Russian politicians, than economy.

How do you appraise the results of this war?
Bush's declaration on Monday was very, even surprisingly strict. The president of France visted Moscow on Tuesday, however the agreement, which Mr Saakashvili had to sign, was formulated in accordance with the Russian interests. Kondolisa Rice made a temperate announcement on Tuesday. I mean, that the West is not ready to oppose and attack Russia. Sarkozi's conduct on Sunday once again approves Europe's position regarding this matter.

What does it mean "the Europe is not ready", when will it be?
The Europe depends on the Russian gas, oil. Germany and France are substantial cooperators of Russian policy. Same as Italy, which took pro-Russian, pro-Putinian side. Berluskoni and Putin havea close private, as well as business relationship. I work in Washington and know that Moscow's influence here is not strong. More issues depend on the elections as well. If Mccain is elected as a president, he is going to lead a very rough policy against Russia, however, even in this case, his position is going to be balanced by France and UK. Georgia, of course has a support. On Monday, when there was a very imminent and real danger of Russian invasion into Tbilisi, only President Bush's declaration managed to stop them. On the other hand, Georgia lost the chance of getting back Apkhazia and South Osetia . I mean, that the West is not just going to let Russians destroy Tbilisi and invade the whole Georgia.

Let's assume, that Russian runs out of energetic resources ...
For the Western world, Georgia is not the main issue. Europe is not a significant player, so let's talk about Russia. Why does Putin behave so? Well, there is a war in Iraq and Avghanistan, there are internal conflicts in the government os USA, that's why Putin behaves in such a way. I remember American declarations while Chekoslovakian invasion, the same strict attitude appeared from the USA, when the danger of Tbilisi's destruction appeared. Bush clearly declared for Medvedev, that it would be too much. There are Russian groups in Moscow, who are going to do everything to destroy Georgia completely, that's why, Bush's factor played a great role in preventing such an escalation. However, nobody is going to assist Georgia in returning Apkhazia and South Ossetia.

Criminals in Kremli have their bank accounts in the western banks. If they would attack Tbilisi, all of the accounts would be annulated.

Does the whole Kreml have bank accounts in the Western Banks?
All of them, everybody knows about it. Who are politicians in Russia? Criminals. Everybody knows, that the Swiss firm "Gunvor" exports the whole Russian oil, which is, in fact governed by Putin.

Bush made his strict announcement on Monday, evening only after Saakashvili had already made a declaration about the future destruction of Georgia.
Yes, only after Bush received information about Tbilisi's bombing, he made such a comment.

The leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia didn't visit Georgia ...
This is a great dieappointment for Georgians, especially the fact, that Aliev didn't arrive, but he is a careful Politician and confrontation with Moscow is not under his interests. However, there is the Baku-Tbilisi-Jeihan pipeline on the Georgian territory, which was as well bombed by Russians.

We can not in fact refer to the United Nations?
NO, you can't. Russia is going to veto it. This is a totally useless institution. The Security Council is not able to decide anything. They can just take such kinds of resolutions, as has already been signed by Mr Saakashvili, in which nothing is said about the territorial integrity of Georgia.

There was a discussion over the "sovereignty" in Moscow ...
They define "sovereignty" so, as they like. Nobody is going to refer Bank accounts because of Ossetia, but Tbilisi is another case. Sarkozi took an entirely different position.

Before this war, Georgia was more or less involved in the ongoing processes in this regions. What is going to Happen now?
Putin had planned to resignate Saakashvili. Russians are going to declare your President, as a war criminal and stop a dialogue with "criminal" and "guilty" person.

What would you do if you were in Saakashvili's situation?
I wouldn't really like to be on his place now. American factor still exists, Bush has stopped Russia from bombing Tbilisi. You have to care about deepening relationship with USA and support Mccain's candidate. I predict, that he is going to win. His paraphrase of Kennedy's famous phrase "I am Berlinnel" was a positive sign to you. This is the person, who was arrested and tortured in Vietnam by Russian KGB agents, that's why, his attitude toward Russia is absolutely clear.

But the 90% of Americans don't even know where Georgia is ...
This 90% doesn't lead the policy, the President does. That's why, if Mccain wins, his policy towards Russia is going to be more tense.

How do you think, will Maccein administration assist Georgia to solve the problem of territorial integrity?
Was our problem solved from Chechnia? Russia cheats while talking about territorial integrity in Chechnia, as it is even more independent now, than it used to be while Maskhadov. This is a very difficult issue, that's why, I can's exactly say anything. If Russia had given a bit more time to Saakashvili, Georgia would have made a great progress. Tbilisi has changed greatly, Achara resourts would have become world known ones. You have been doing everything in a right way, more or less Georgian economy was in order. Abkhazians would have started to think about living in such a rich and beautiful, well developed country. Only highly developed Georgia will be able to return territories.

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